The ocean freight market is entering the summer period with a notable divergence between headline figures and underlying market realities. Rates are trending upwards, with bunker surcharges of approximately USD 500 per FEU being introduced into July pricing schedules. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is further reinforcing industry expectations of a prolonged period of disruption.
At a recent Xeneta-hosted industry briefing, analysts highlighted that current rate increases are being driven less by genuine consumer demand and more by frontloading activity, as shippers rush to move cargo ahead of anticipated tariff changes and potential geopolitical escalations. This behaviour is creating an artificial surge in volumes, which is, in turn, applying upward pressure on spot rates across key trade lanes.
For the next six weeks, the market is likely to remain volatile. Carriers are expected to capitalise on the current momentum by pushing through general rate increases (GRIs) and maintaining tight capacity discipline. However, once frontloaded cargo clears the system, there is a real risk that underlying demand will prove softer than headline figures suggest, potentially leading to a sharp correction later in the third quarter.
For shippers and freight forwarders alike, the priority over the coming weeks will be careful capacity planning, transparent communication with carriers, and a clear view of true demand signals beyond the inflated short-term numbers.