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Falling exports haunt experts


Exports need from Pakistan currently account for only 7.4 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, whereas Bangladesh’s exports that are equivalent to 14.8 percent of its GDP.
Despite its improving GDP growth, Pakistan’s exports are declining, creating a big trade deficit. With a GDP of $271.1 billion (2015 estimates), Pakistan’s exports in 2016 were $20.96 billion.
To compare the performance of the other two large economies of the subcontinent; the Indian GDP has crossed $2.251 trillion and its exports in 2016 were $271.1 in 2016 – equivalent to 12 percent of its GDP. Indian external debt stands at $507 billion that mean its exports are less than two times of its external debt.

Bangladesh, with a GDP of $226.8 billion, exports goods worth $33.32 billion, 14.8 percent of its GDP. Its external debt is $37.26 billion which is a little over 100 percent of its exports.

A country is vulnerable to economic shocks if its external debt is over 200 percent of its exports, and it is highly vulnerable to even minor shocks if its external debt is over 300 percent of its exports. Pakistan unfortunately falls in to the last category.