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China to stimulate economy as UK exports expected to decline

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China’s exports to Britain and Europe will face barriers in the post-Brexit world, impinging on the mainland’s economic growth. A report by investment bank China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests the government will stimulate growth as a precaution.

China’s export growth to the EU could drop by 5 to 6 percentage points and China’s overall export growth could fall by 1 percentage point, CICC said, assuming that the European economy would lose 1 percentage point of potential GDP growth after Brexit.

That will pull China’s economic growth this year down 0.2 percentage points, as exports account for 20 per cent of total GDP.

In a worst case scenario, the EU’s growth would slow 2 percentage points. This would translate to a more than 5 percentage point impact to China’s exports and GDP, CICC said.

In addition, the sharp appreciation of the yuan against the British pound and the euro since the Brexit result was known on June 24 will add to the risk for China’s exports.