A strong ruble is threatening to slow Russia’s wheat exports, as grain from Ukraine and European nations including France remains cheaper.
In May Russian wheat prices were more than $20 above French prices and about $6 more expensive than in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg calculations. The ruble gained over the past three months, making exports priced in dollars less attractive.
If the ruble doesn’t weaken, “exports are likely to fall sharply soon,” said Andrey Sizov Jr., managing director of Moscow-based SovEcon.
The pace of Russia’s wheat exports has been slowing for about a month now, data from Federal Customs Service showed. Exports rose about 310,000 tons in the week ended April 27, down from an increase of 540,000 tons in the seven-day period to March 30.